"Wake Up Babe, A New KenPom Metric Just Dropped."
Breaking down the NEW KenPom Metric and what it means for the Big South
First off, I want to thank Zak Boisvert (even thought I doubt he’ll see this) for the tweet that gave me the spark to create the title for this article, I would not know where to begin without that title.
SO… as the title says, with the New Year, KenPom chose to release a new metric and it’s a very interesting one.
2PT Distance.
On paper, many might think “well that’s a stupid metric, who cares about the distance of 2’s you take.” and that’s where I come in to break down the new metric, how it translates to winning and pointing out some outliers that may negate some teams data.
Why should I care about 2PT Distance?
Simply put, taking shots closer to the rim, USUALLY score more.
You might be saying “well they are both worth 2 points.” which yes is TECHNICALLY correct.
Here is where my nerd brain that died out in middle school shows back up takes over.
One thing is evident from chart above, the farther you get from the rim, the less points you get per make and that is USUALLY the fact for most teams.
One more thing is becoming glaring, I am using “USUALLY” a lot, let me explain why with one word.
Outliers.
In fact, High Point ran into one of the biggest outliers of them all last season in the NCAA Tournament with Purdue. Both Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are considered “elite” or “high level” mid range players. Their shot production from that area of the court makes Purdue’s 2PT Distance almost null and void because you can’t really force them into long 2’s as those are shots the team is somewhat willing to take.
In that Round of 64 game versus Purdue, The Boilermakers took over 50% of their shots from over 4.5 feet from the basket and with shots 4-10 feet and 15+ they shot over 5% over the NCAA average shooting percentage from that range.
Another outlier that is worth noting, more for the defensive end is something that usually leaves crying when I leave the bar, can also make me cry by ruining this metric. BLOCKS. For this example, I am headed back to 2023-24 McNeese State, the team that everyone thought would be the Cinderella (even though they did this in 2024-25 too).
In 2023-24, McNeese was 352nd in defensive 2PT Distance, but yet only allowed teams to shoot 54% at the rim and 34.1% from 4.5 Feet to 10 Feet, why was that? Their 6’ 6” big man down low in Christian Shumate. Shumate, despite being only 6’ 6” had the 112th block rate in the country and was 5th in the Southland conference in Block Rate. The issue came when they faced a team that could deal with McNeese’s defense by just stretching the floor which Gonzaga was able to do shooting over 49% from behind the arc and cruising past McNeese by 21.
Now back to the chart.
The two most recent Big South champs, 2023-24 High Point and 2024-25 High Point. Both of those team ranked Top 60 both Offensive and Defensive 2PT Distance.
This year High Point is only 103rd in offensive 2PT Distance partial due in part to their own outliers in SEMO transfer Rob Martin who is currently at the time of writing 11/22 from 10-15 Feet from the rim along with CSUN transfer Scotty Washington who is 7/14 from 10-15+.
So, who is #1 in the Big South?
The current #1 for the Big South in Offensive and Defensive 2PT Distance, The Charleston Southern Buccaneers.
CSU ranks 45th in Offensive 2PT Distance along with 38th in Defensive 2PT Distance and they are for two different reasons. The offensive is because they spread the floor with their lights out shooting which thus weakens the defense opening the floor for either their quick guards like A’lahn Sumler to cut to the rim or their stellar big men like Reis Jones or Lase Olalere to finish in the paint. Those big men are also the reason teams can’t GET to the rim, their paint presence along Reis Jones’ 33rd best in the nation block rate limits the opponents ability to take and make GOOD 2’s.
What about the rest of the Big South?
Format: Team - Off FT (Off Rank) / Def FT (Def Rank)
Charleston Southern - 5.0 FT (45th) / 6.9 FT (34th)
Gardner Webb - 5.4 FT (94th) / 4.8 FT (354th)
Winthrop - 5.4 FT (99th) / 6.0 FT (162nd)
High Point - 5.5 FT (103rd) / 6.0 FT (150th)
Longwood - 5.7 FT (146th) / 5.9 FT (185th)
Radford - 6.0 FT (199th) / 5.9 FT (177th)
USC Upstate - 6.0 FT (203rd) / 6.0 FT (156th)
Presbyterian - 6.1 FT (219th) / 6.3 FT (112th)
UNC Asheville - 7.0 FT (321st) / 4.8 FT (356th)