Mid Season Recap and Reflection
Breaking down some of my predictions from the preseason, recapping and reflecting on those takes
Well, we leave non conference play behind us and luckily the Big South is not like other leagues where conference play is split.
We get 9 weeks of STRAIGHT BIG SOUTH ACTION. (Plus the action in Johnson City.)
Something new I am wanting to do is look back at some of my preseason rankings and other takes that I spouted out in the preseason and give my thoughts and honest reflection on those and also provide a little of a pulse check of the Big South headed into conference play.
So without a further ado, lets look at how good (or bad) I did on giving my thoughts on teams this preseason, starting with my preseason team rankings.
For matter of grading purposes if I was spot on, I will mark it as right.
If I was off, but closer than the Big South Media Day Poll, I will mark it as okay.
If I was off, and not closer than the Media Day Poll, then I will mark it as wrong.
Current rankings will be based on modern KenPom (because I made KenPom takes later in the piece)
And finally, these are NOT a final recap because well, we have conference play.
Team Rankings Reflection:
9. Gardner Webb - Right
I had a feeling it would be a rough season for Gardner Webb, but I thought it would be better than this current position as a whole.
Flashes have been there for Gardner Webb, but it’s been few and far between for the fans in Boiling Springs. Spence Sims seems to be on the inside track to Big South Freshmen of the Year but that is a devil in sheep’s clothing as that just makes him more likely to be poached by a big school.
Size just doesn’t seem to be there for Gardner Webb, that mixed with almost a lack of defensive intensity and very poor shot making ability has hampered any hopes for Gardner Webb.
8. USC Upstate - Okay
The Big South Media Poll had them 9th, I have them 8th, KenPom currently has them 6th.
Upstate has been a real surprise so far even for me as a Upstate believer in the preseason. The squad has been very consistent, something that was lacking last season and was really the detriment to last years team.
The biggest limiting factor so far for USC Upstate has been their free throw shooting, a stat that they ranked 275th in the country in and 2nd to last in the conference in. If Upstate can improve, even to around 70%, something they’ve done as of recent. They could be a true contender in Johnson City.
7. Presbyterian - Right
Another one I had spot on, as Presbyterian enters conference play at 7th in KenPom, the Big South Media Day poll had them in 6th.
Presbyterian started out the season really well with wins over East Tennessee State and Georgia State, both looking to be statement wins. ETSU remained as a very solid win but Georgia State has fallen off a cliff. Since their win over Georgia State, Presbyterian has a 3-7 record and only D1 wins over The Citadel and Morehead State.
The issue for Presbyterian is the lack of a play creating guard leading them to a have a rotation at the position. Recently that PG has been Josh Pickett, who was traditionally small ball 4 at Denver and currently has a 13.7 Assist Rate and a 35.9 turnover rate in his “PG” role.
6. Charleston Southern - Okay
Despite me having them 6th and the Big South poll having them in 7th, The Charleston Southern Buccaneers have excelled and are currently 3rd entering in KenPom.
Charleston Southern’s success has been due in part to Coach Nimley’s ability to find talent, no matter the origin. Whether its Luke Williams coming from Kansas and played at a Midwest D2 last year. Jesse Hafemeister a D3 transfer from NJ and missed last season. Or their superstar Brycen Blaine coming from a JUCO in Florida and being originally from Richmond, VA.
If there were one thing to nit pick so far, it’s CSU lack of turnover creation. This season CSU ranks 364th in defensive turnover percentage with only a 12.2% turnover rate but their shooting defense has been supplemental at holding CSU together on that end.
5th. Longwood - Okay
In probably the biggest surprise to the majority of the Big South, Longwood enters the Big South 8th in KenPom, the same Lancers team I had 5th and the Media Day Poll had them 3rd.
Longwood has had a similar fate as Presbyterian. Longwood has a statement win over JMU to begin the year but as Non Conference went on, they had some very bad losses to UMES and Delaware State both at home which tanked their KenPom losing over 3 EM in just those 2 losses. With those 2 losses excluded they are up 1 spot to 7th and close to 6th and 5th.
For Longwood, two small issues on their own compound to make 1 large issue, bad shooting and not playing together. At times the bad 3PT shooting was able to be masked by Longwood’s style. In the games it hasn’t, it’s noticeable how Longwood has not been playing together as a team. You find one of the two issues, and this is a true threat to the Big South.
4th: UNC Asheville - Right
Probably one of my biggest strays from the average, I had Asheville 4th compared to Media which had them 2nd with a 1st place vote (as coaches can’t vote for themselves).
UNC Asheville has the potential to have 4 all conference level players, but they have had some of the lowest bench production in all of D1 ranking in at 354th out of 365 team with only 14.2 PPG. Outside of their 4 normal staters who all average over 10 PPG, Myles Mayfield is next with only 5.4 PPG and he’s usually a starter.
If Asheville can get some bench production, even if it’s just 10 points per game, something they’ve struggled to get to. They could take a load off their stars shoulders and maybe make their performance better.
3rd: Winthrop - Okay
Another team in which I was higher than the media poll, but still not high enough as the Media Poll had Winthrop in 5th, I had them 3rd, but they are become a real threat to High Point at 2nd.
It’s rare that a resume’s best results are losses, but that’s what it is seemingly for Winthrop with a ton of close Quad 1 games boosting their resume, along with solid resume building wins over Queens, Mercer and LIU has made Winthrop, at least metrics wise, a true contender to compete with High Point for the league.
If Winthrop can just a little more defensive production, this team could very well steal the league from High Point, the defense is currently 279th and while Coach Prosser isn’t some defensive mastermind, he usually hovers around 220th and if Winthrop can get to near that, they would almost neck and neck High Point metrics wise.
2nd: Radford - Wrong
The first one I’ve gotten completely wrong, and one of the main reasons for this article, I had them 2nd, the Media Poll had Radford 4th, and currently Radford is 5th on KenPom.
Simply put Radford has been a failure on a lot of fronts compared to the preseason hype. The only player to really impress in my eyes has been Dennis Parker Jr with the rest either being players who have disappointed either with their streaky shooting or for some reason or another haven’t played a lot.
Radford’s solution is pretty simple, everyone needs to step up and carry their weight. The coaching staff has made mistakes, players have made mistakes, and some of other things have happened that shouldn’t have. The good thing about the Big South for a team like Radford, nothing that happened before conference play only matters if you win the conference tournament.
1. High Point - Right
Finally, the what seems to be free square on the BINGO card, High Point being 1st which both I and the Media Poll predicted.
Entering the year, High Point seemingly had the most talent in the Big South and they’ve proven that at times this season with wins against Furman, UIC, and Incarnate Word. In all of High Point’s wins, they’ve scored 84 points or more.
Despite that talent, HPU has dropped a few against App State, Southern Illinois and UAB and one common factor went into all 3 losses, cold shooting. If HPU wants to hold onto their throne at the top. They either need to not have a cold shooting night, which is impossible, or figure out other ways to win that bludgeoning their opponents.
Twitter Takes:
Charleston Southern being better than 320th on KenPom - Right
Probably my best take of the year, I had Charleston Southern at higher than the 320th that KenPom had them at in the preseason.
Simply I thought having that roster at 320th was insane, they had one of the best backcourts in the Big South and a pretty solid and deep front court, and both have seemed to be correct reasonings as for why I liked them.
Brycen Blaine has been a big part of that massive jump, but players like Luke Williams and Jesse Hafemiester have also played massive roles in that exceeding of expectations.
Less than 3 teams at SUB 310 on KenPom - Okay
Even though I called for less than 3, I will still only count this as Okay because Longwood is very close to dropping which I will consider that as make my “Only 1” part wrong.
The one knock I have on KenPom and part of the reason that I made this prediction was, especially in this new era is the over valuing of past season data. So knowing that the tradition bottom of the league got better, along with Gardner Webb being the only really bad team in my eyes, it led me to make the prediction and so far it has looked at least decent.