Mid Season Big South Award Watchlist
Giving the players and coaches I see potentially earning awards at season's end
Well, we are officially at the half way point of Big South conference play.
In just around a month from now, we will be finding out who wins Big South Hardware and being halfway through the season we have some clear front runners.
We will be breaking down, who are those front runners, who has the best case, and my prediction of who wins the award.
Freshman of the Year, to DPOY, to POTY, to even Coach of the Year.
Disclaimer: Opinions are mine and mine only, any of the players I name has a case currently to win the award.
Freshman of the Year:
Freshman of the Year Watchlist:
Gardner Webb - Guard - Spence Sims
UNC Asheville - Forward - Myles Mayfield
Charleston Southern - Guard - Jacob Taylor
Radford - Forward - Frederik Erichsen
High Point - Forward - Caden Miller
Presbyterian - Forward - Chidi Chiakwelu
Case Reasoning:
Gardner Webb - Guard - Spence Sims:
Supporting Points:
Leads the Big South Freshman in MPG and PPG.
One of the better players on their team.
4 Big South Player of the Week Awards
Opposing Points:
Not an analytical darling, 1% percentile +/- in CBB, 11.0 PER, -0.5 WARP
UNC Asheville - Forward - Myles Mayfield
Supporting Points:
2nd most minutes played by a over 140 minutes, leads in RPG, 60% 2PT shooter
1 Big South Player of the Week Award
Opposing Points:
Hasn’t really had a notable game/moment that was good
Pretty underwhelming player with 24.4 MPG
Charleston Southern - Guard - Jacob Taylor
Supporting Points:
Has earned the most starts by a freshman this season, 2nd best +/-, 60th percentile RAPM.
Minutes increased throughout the season.
1 Big South Player of the Year Award
Opposing Points:
Lowest WARP of all Watchlist Players
Non factor in many games.
Radford - Forward - Frederik Erichsen
Supporting Points:
2nd highest PPG, 2nd on Watchlist for RPG, 2nd Highest 2PT% with 73.5% on only 4th most minutes and 0 starts.
7th best 2PT shooter of all freshman players.
2 Big South Player of the Week Awards
Opposing Points:
Worst Defensive Wins Shares of all Watchlist Players.
Had a really forgettable non conference and has only really good for 1/2th the season
High Point - Forward - Caden Miller
Supporting Points:
Highest 2PT percentage, Best +/-, Highest Win Shares, Highest PER
Best team success, only freshman on a Top 2 seed
Two Big South Player of the Week Awards
Opposing Points:
Non qualifier for most stats on CBBAnalytics
Presbyterian - Forward - Chidi Chiakwelu
Supporting Points:
Tied PC D1 era record for blocks
Best freshman defender, Best WARP, 2nd Highest PER
One Big South Player of the Week
Opposing Points:
Non qualifier for stats on CBBAnalytics
Very limited offensive output
Lowest minutes player out of all Watchlist Players
Prediction: Spence Sims
Reasoning: This case is just very similar to Mister Dean at USC Upstate last season. Sims is putting up really good stats because he is one of the limited options at Gardner Webb and because he’s the PG, he can rack up a ton of stats at will. No other player really has that option.
Sleeper Pick: Frederik Erichsen - Radford
Defensive Player of the Year
Defensive POTY Watchlist:
High Point - Forward - Owen Aquino
Charleston Southern - Forward - Reis Jones
Presbyterian - Forward - Jonah Pierce
USC Upstate - Forward - Jafeth Martinez
Longwood - Guard - Alphonzo Billups
Case Reasoning:
High Point - Forward - Owen Aquino
Supporting Points:
Highest Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Wins Share Per 40 of all Watchlist Players
2nd Highest Steal Rate of all Watchlist Players
Highest PF Efficiency of all Watchlist Players
Opposing Points:
11th percentile in Fouls Per Game
Charleston Southern - Forward - Reis Jones
Supporting Points:
2nd Highest Watchlist Block Rate
2nd Highest Defensive Win Shares Per 40
Most Blocks in the Big South
Opposing Points:
Most fouls and fouls per game.
Negative DRAPM
Presbyterian - Forward - Jonah Pierce
Supporting Points:
Most Defensive Rebounds in the Big South and Highest Watchlist DRB%.
2nd highest Watchlist Defensive Win Shares
Lowest Fouls Per Game of all Watchlist Big Men
Opposing Points:
Lowest Block Rate for Watchlist Big Men
Lowest Hakeem Percentage of all Watchlist Players
USC Upstate - Forward - Jafeth Martinez
Supporting Points:
2nd most blocks in the Big South
Highest Block Rate of Watchlist Players
Highest Hakeem Percentage of all Watchlist Players
Highest Blocks Per PF of Watchlist Players
Opposing Points:
Lowest Steal Rate of all Watchlist Players
Least minutes player of all Watchlist Players
Longwood - Guard - Alphonzo Billups
Supporting Points:
Highest Steal Rate of all Watchlist Players
Highest Hakeem Percentage for any guard with significant playing time in the Big South
Top 80th percentile shot blocking guard in the nation.
Opposing Points:
Doesn’t put up the sheer stats that other Watchlist Players have.
Doesn’t rebound well, even for a guard.
Prediction: Owen Aquino
Reasoning: I truly went back and forth on this one for a while but just ended up picking Owen Aquino. He doesn’t really pop out on the “Big Man” defensive stats, but if you look deeply into the other stats and wins shares, his impact pops off the page. All 5 players I listed are really good and all could very well win the award.
Sleeper Pick: Jafeth Martinez (but really any of these 5 and a few more)
Coach of the Year
Coach of the Year Watchlist:
Winthrop - Mark Prosser
High Point - Flynn Clayman
Charleston Southern - Saah Nimley
Presbyterian - Quinton Ferrell
Winthrop - Mark Prosser
Case Reasoning: Well, one usually the coach that is the league winner or tied for the win usually wins the award and Winthrop currently has the tiebreaker over High Point, but that’s not the only reason Prosser has a case. When you look at his predecessor in Pat Kelsey, Mark is closing in on the higher KenPom finish and potentially the first tournament berth of his career. I also think we might see High Point voter fatigue (more on that later) which leaves the door open, even if Mark doesn’t win the league for him to win the award.
High Point - Flynn Clayman
Case Reasoning: In year one, Flynn Clayman has kept the house that Alan Huss built chugging right down the track and even took them up a massive step on the defensive end. While the numbers on analytical sites make the defensive changes seem smaller, when you see the film, it’s very evident that High Point cares about defense way more than last season. Along with that, Flynn has High Point with the best overall record in the Big South and tied for the Big South lead. I do see the potential of voter fatigue for High Point because of this being their 3rd straight chance of winning the award and maybe that league record losses it’s luster after a 3rd amazing season.
Charleston Southern - Saah Nimley
Case Reasoning: Year two (.5) for Saah Nimley and this team has made a solid turnaround. Already passing last seasons win total just two games into conference play including two buy game wins over Richmond and East Carolina. If Charleston Southern were to finish the 16-15 as projected by KenPom that would be their best season since 2019 and would finish with their biggest jump in KenPom history. Despite the recent fall in conference play, I think if CSU can find their footing once again they can finish around that 16-15 and Saah Nimley can be a contender for COTY.
Presbyterian - Quinton Ferrell
Case Reasoning: Many people saw the Field of 68’s Anonymous Job Rankings that had Presbyterian in last. Well if you look at the Big South standings, that team that has the worst resources in the conference, isn’t in last place. The job Quinton Ferrell has done at Presbyterian deserves more than just his flowers. Coach Ferrell is on pace for his best season at Presbyterian, which likely ends up being the 2nd best season in school history behind Dustin Kerns in 2019.
Prediction: Presbyterian - Quinton Ferrell
Reasoning: This was probably the hardest award to pick from, all 4 coaches I listed have really good chances of winning this award, and even a few I left off. The reason I picked Coach Ferrell over everyone else comes down to 2-3 things. 1, this job is one of if not the hardest job in the Big South and likely one of the hardest non service academy jobs in the nation and the job he has done is unreal. 2, Coach Ferrell finished 2nd in voting last year with actually more 1st place votes than Alan Huss. 3, it’s far overdue, Coach Ferrell has made PC a real contender for now 3 seasons straight and deserves his flowers.
Sleeper Pick: Charleston Southern - Saah Nimley
Big South Player of the Year:
Big South Player of the Year Watchlist:
Charleston Southern - Guard - A’lahn Sumler
Charleston Southern - Guard - Brycen Blaine
High Point - Forward - Terry Anderson
Presbyterian - Forward - Jonah Pierce
Radford - Guard - Dennis Parker Jr
UNC Asheville - Guard/Forward - Kameron Taylor
Winthrop - Center - Logan Duncomb
DISCLAIMER: For this award to take away ANY biases, I am using a formula to pick the projected winner.
The categories and weights goes as follows:
Team Success (1x)
Big South Player of the Week Awards (1x)
Non Conference Stats (2x)*
Conference Play Stats (3x)*
Best Single Game Performance against D1 (1x)**
Wins Above Replacement Player (2x)***
Bonus Categories: Top 5 in PPG, RPG, APG, SPG (Stocks Per Game) +5 for 1st, +4 for 2nd… 1pt for 5th (.5x)
Reasoning for this Metric Formula: This metric formula, at least in my opinion, best reflects what you need to win Big South Player of the Year. Last year showcased, it’s not always the best player on the best team that wins the award, hence why I only rated Team Success at 10%, the same as Big South Player of the Week awards as I believe those CAN factor in but SHOULDN’T decide the award. The things that should reflect that award are represented with higher weights, your stats SHOULD matter, with Conference Play being more important as THAT is what decides your seeding and chance to make the Big Dance and WARP shows if you are TRULY better than your peers.
* based on PRPG!
** based on Game Score
*** based on WARP on CBBAnalytics
The Results:
Prediction: Winthrop - Logan Duncomb
Reasoning: To be honest, the number kind of went how I expected, Logan Duncomb just has been having a historic season. Duncomb is currently on pace for highest PER in the Big South since Chris Clemons in 2018-19 and the highest PER in Winthrop history. Along with that leads the Big South in ORB’s, FG%, FTA and FTM, and Box +/-. It would take someone having an amazing end to conference play to really take this award away from Logan Duncomb in my opinion.
Sleeper Pick: High Point - Terry Anderson or Charleston Southern - A’lahn Sumler