Dec 31st Big South Conference Play Preview
Previewing Day 1 of Big South Conference Play
Well, we’ve made it.
Conference Play is FINALLY here, no more. “I think Team A will win the league.” “I think Team B will win the league.”
Now we get to see which teams are real contenders and which teams are real bottom feeders.
Wednesday - Dec 31st
(Games are ranked in no particular order if they begin at the same time)
Radford (7-8) at USC Upstate (8-7) - 2pm EST
USC Upstate Preview: USC Upstate was picked 9th during media day but on opening night, despite losing, it became CLEAR that was NOT true and that’s been prevalent all season with solid wins over Coastal Carolina, Fresno State and Western Carolina and having their best start since joining the Big South. The Spartans are led by a solid defensive stalwarts down low with Jafeth Martinez and Coen Collier along with two scoring guards in Karmani Gregory and Mason Bendinger.
Radford Preview: Radford was picked 4th during media day but some people, me included had them as high as 2nd. Much like Upstate it became clear that wasn’t going to happen pretty early, just this time to the downside as Radford began the season 2-6. Good news for Radford, they are now 7-8 and might have righted the ship. Bad news, their best win during that time frame is VMI which is ranked in the mid 300’s. Radford’s mid season resurgence is mostly due in part to Dennis Parker Jr who is averaging over 20 PPG including 53 points against Coppin State. Alongside Parker, there is Del Jones who is also averaging over 15 PPG and Jaylon Johnson who has shown a true potential during this recent stretch of the season.
Game Preview: This game should be a fun clash of styles, Radford is looking to run as they rank 17th in Tempo in the entire country something that Upstate did last season but not as much this year. Along with that contrast, Upstate relies on their defense compared to Radford that relies on their offense. They say defense travels, this time I don’t think it needs to go far as I think Marty Richter slows this one down and Radford gets into a shooting slump against Upstate’s interior and underrated 3PT defense and Upstate will begin conference play 1-0.
Score Prediction: USC Upstate 75 - Radford 70
High Point (12-3) at UNC Asheville (6-8) - 2pm EST
High Point Preview: Despite entering conference play with 12 wins and being the only team entering conference play with 10 or more wins, I feel High Point might have a sour taste in their mouth. Their losses to Southern Illinois and App State both came down to not executing when it mattered but when they execute, they are a HARD team to beat. Like last year, this team has a two headed monster group at PG with Rob Martin and Conrad Martinez, both seemingly able to create without any turnover issues but they have one massive change over last year in the front court, Cam’ron Fletcher. The former Kentucky (and others) forward has been a massive part of High Point success being able to do it almost anywhere on the court.
UNC Asheville Preview: It wasn’t the non conference Mike Morrell would have dreamed of, only going 6-8 with two BRUTAL losses at the buzzer back to back along with a loss to Miami (OH). This team could very well be a 10 win team if a few thing go their way in a few games. Something that has gone Asheville’s way, player development as they have 4 true all conference level players. Justin Wright, Toyaz Solomon and Kameron Taylor are all averaging over 15 PPG through the non conference and CSU transfer DJ Patrick is averaging just over 10 PPG.
Game Preview: A rematch of two barn burners from last year. As I said, Asheville could very well be 10-4 entering this one and High Point IS 12-3 entering this contest. With that being said, I think High Point is just a bad stylistic matchup for Asheville. Asheville has not done a good job at protecting the ball ranking 333rd in turnover percentage, a stark contrast from last year. High Point on the other hand, creates the 12th most turnovers in the country, last year Asheville won the turnover battle in both games keeping them in it, I don’t think that happens this go around.
Score Prediction: High Point 92 - UNC Asheville 83
Charleston Southern (9-6) at Gardner Webb (2-13) - 2pm EST
Charleston Southern Preview: For the first time since 2014-15, when now Coach Saah Nimley was the STAR at Charleston Southern, CSU enters Big South play above .500. Two wins over buy game opponents, the most road wins of any team entering Big South play, and the 2nd best record entering conference play. Their success has been from their BOMB’S AWAY approach from behind the arc as they rank 2nd in the nation in 3PT makes and 1st in the nation in 3PT attempts. Led by now 3 time Big South Player of the Week Brycen Blaine, the JUCO guard is averaging 18.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 3.6 APG, but it’s not just Blaine. Saah Nimley said after beating North Florida, “The best thing about this team, is we are a team. We are built that is someone has an off night. The next guy just steps up.” and that team feel is EVIDENT when you look down the stat sheet, Luke Williams 5.5 APG, Reis Jones 1.7 BPG, Jesse Hafemeister 12.1 PPG and A’lahn Sumler with 13.8 PPG.
Gardner Webb Preview: The non conference is something Gardner Webb would want to forget. They had only 2 wins, both coming against non D1 opponents and only one was truly convincing, that coming against Toccoa Falls. Their D1 opponents along with North Greenville really took GWU to the woodshed winning by an average of 25 points and only 2 being by single digits. If Gardner Webb turns it around in conference play, it will come from Spence Sims and Jacob Hogarth. Both Sims and Hogarth have shown flashes but they haven’t seem to shown them at the same time in games. Maybe Gardner Webb could get some nice bench minutes out of their mid season addition in Bo Barber as Coach Luther has increased his minutes each of the past 4 games, Barber holds the Spring Hill College Assists Record
Game Preview: This is a tough spot for Charleston Southern, coming off an emotional win, facing a team coming off 10 days of preparation. It would be the perfect spot for CSU to stumble and drop their league play opener. Sadly, I don’t see a path for Gardner Webb to win this one. CSU is one of the highest value 3PT shooting teams, facing a team that has given up open 3PT shots all season along with just haven’t played defense with much intensity all season.
Score Prediction: Charleston Southern 92 - Gardner Webb 79
Winthrop (8-7) at Longwood (8-7) - 3pm EST
Winthrop Preview: Coming off a Big South final loss last season, Winthrop is hoping to be hoisting that title this season and this team has a shot at it. Despite being 8-7, the metrics LOVE Winthrop, mostly due to their close losses to Nebraska, Arkansas and George Mason along with wins over LIU and a MASSIVE win over Mercer. The Talford and Doucet duo is gone but the presence down low is still there with Logan Duncomb, and he’s surrounded by true studs in Kareem Rozier, one of the best PG’s in the Big South and hot shooting Kody Clouet nearly shooting 40% from 3.
Longwood Preview: It’s another even year, if you are the kind of person look at trends, this should mean Longwood will take home some hardware after Johnson City. If they want to bring that trophy they will need to go back to the early season form that they had when they beat James Madison. It seems as if everyone game one or two of their stars is showing up but always seem 1 player away from winning the game. Redd Thompson might be one of the most underrated addition in the Big South as he’s been a pretty consistent 10 PPG off the bench. Two headed monster down low with Johan Nziemi and Elijah Tucker have both been great at times but has been rocky at times as well.
Game Preview: The rematch of the final 1st round matchup from the last year’s Big South tournament is the final matchup for Day 1 of Big South play. Both teams are coming in on complete opposite, Longwood won their last two games against NC Central and Averett, Winthrop lost to Texas Tech but showed a ton of heart. This game will come down Longwood keeping the ball safe and getting to the line, with them having home court, I do think they carry their momentum into a win.
Score Prediction: Longwood 77 - Winthrop 75