For the 2nd straight year we headed west from the Cumberland Gap to Johnson City, TENNESSEE. (yes, I will beat this joke into the ground.)
Everyone’s best chance at March glory comes here, Trae Benham, Carlik Jones, DJ Burns and many other had their legacies cemented via this tournament right here.
The bracket is set.
The regular season is done.
Every game is simple, WIN or GO HOME.
Team Previews/Season Recap:
9 Seed: Gardner Webb 3-28 (1-15)
Recap: It has been a season to forget for the Runnin Bulldogs faithful from basically the moment the ball tipped off. In Game #1, they began the game down 23-1 to Minnesota but seemed to look better against Clemson before the true nail in their coffin against North Greenville suffering a loss by double digits. It took until December for Gardner Webb to get their first win, and until Jan 23rd to get their first win over a D1 school.
Despite the awful start to the season, Gardner Webb does seem to be improve playing games way close than they were even at the start of conference play. Gardner Webb lost to High Point by 55 in the Qubein Center in Paul Porter Arena that margin cut massively. Anything can happen in March, maybe GWU can harness a bit of that 2019 magic and make a run.
8 Seed: USC Upstate 13-18 (5-11)
Recap: The story for Upstate’s season was described with their non conference and overtime games, but both of those actually went good Upstate. Their one stumble has been conference play. Upstate began non conference play with a close loss to Cal Baptist before picking up a massive road win at Fresno State. They would later pick up an overtime win against Coastal Carolina, and a win over WCU along with a very close loss to Nebraska.
Conference play began pretty rough losing 3 straight before getting their first conference win, in overtime vs Charleston Southern. Before once again losing 3 straight, then winning 2 of their next 3 including another overtime win against Charleston Southern. Upstate picked up a massive win over Presbyterian before ending their season with another big win over Gardner Webb.
7 Seed: Charleston Southern 15-16 (5-11)
Recap: The story for Charleston Southern has been very similar to USC Upstate, the non conference and Overtime. In the non conference it seemed very possible that the 2nd best team in the conference wasn’t Radford, UNC Asheville or Winthrop but Charleston Southern. CSU had marquee wins over Richmond and ECU and close losses to other mid major contenders.
The start of conference play was much of that same thing, picking up two wins over Gardner Webb and UNC Asheville before narrowly falling to Winthrop. That loss to Winthrop set up a massive game with High Point and Charleston Southern gave them a run for their money taking them to OT, but fell in overtime. That loss was apart of 7 straight losses including 4 in overtime. CSU tallied another loss in overtime, making them 0-5 in games going past regulation but CSU is finally getting healthy right as they need it. CSU could cause some havoc in this thing.
6 Seed: Presbyterian 14-17 (7-9)
Recap: The story for Presbyterian’s season has been consistency. This team has basically been playing the same way all season and most of last season. In their first 4 games, PC only dropped one to Navy including wins over Georgia State and East Tennessee State. Presbyterian would take a few more big wins before entering conference play including hold The Citadel to 41 points and beating Morehead State.
In conference play, Presbyterian was basically always in the game outside of three total non conference games. They also weren’t consistently blowing team out either as only 1 of their 7 wins came from double figures or more and a total of 5 of their games being 1 possession games. Presbyterian is built for excitement in the month where excitement is the theme.
5 Seed: Longwood 16-15 (8-8)
Recap: The story of Longwood’s season has be flashes, there have been flashes on excellence whether it’s beating James Madison, or almost beating Wake Forest but in that same non conference they suffered losses to Delaware State and Maryland Eastern Shore at home which absolutely TANKED their metrics.
Conference was about the same way starting with likely one of the flashiest wins of any team beating Winthrop on day 1 of conference play, then a very nice win over Presbyterian that now pops on the resume. Then the floor started to creep back including losing to USC Upstate but Longwood seems to be trending up after winning of their last 4.
4 Seed: UNC Asheville 14-16 (8-8)
Recap: The story of Asheville’s season, their starting 5 and heartbreakers. The non conference began with 3 of their first 4 losses coming in heartbreaking fashion including a foul in the waning seconds against Tennessee State and a buzzer beater vs Western Carolina. Despite those losses, 4 players were standing out for UNC Asheville. Toyaz Solomon, Kam Taylor, Justin Wright and DJ Patrick.
Once conference play came around, much of the heartbreak followed them including 4, one possession losses compared to only 1, one possession win. As the season has moved on Asheville still has received not much production from their 4 main stars but have seen flashes from Mayfield and Thomas but not enough to move them out of the middle of the conference ending 8-8 in conference play.
3 Seed: Radford 16-15 (9-7)
Recap: The story of Radford’s season, has simply been headlines. It began with the hiring of Zach Chu and the out of the box-ness of that hire. Then headlines shifted to their stellar portal class and their first few wins of the season. After that, the 6 game losing streak, and Dennis Parker Jr breaking the Big South single game scoring record before finding some sense of normalcy ending conference play just under .500.
Once conference play came around, this team found an overdrive gear, including starting conference play at 4-1 before running into a gauntlet of 3 of the best team in the conference. After their gauntlet of HPU, Winthrop and CSU, Radford was able to end conference at 9-7 firmly putting them in the 3 seed.
2 Seed: Winthrop 21-10 (13-3)
Recap: The story of Winthrop season is, a few more possessions. Winthrop has only lost two games by double digits, and both happened to be back to back. Winthrop was the first season to win a game, picking up an 8am game vs Queens before two very close losses to George Mason and Coastal Carolina. Winthrop really burst onto the scene this season with their near win vs Arkansas, then their near win over Nebraska. A buzzer beater over LIU, and a few more non D1 wins put the team over .500 entering conference play.
After a loss to Texas Tech, Longwood was able to pick off a worn down Winthrop team. That loss seemingly sparked a fire for Winthrop as they went on a 12 game winning streak including a win over High Point and two close wins over Radford. That streak would end with a loss to High Point by 2 points, which all but ruined Winthrop regular season title hopes.
1 Seed: High Point 27-4 (15-1)
Recap: The story for High Point has been dominance, in each of their non conference wins, not one came with a margin less than 10. Including their opening win against Furman with two more wins following before High Point stumbled against UAB. High Point picked right back up winning 9 more games only falling to Southern Illinois and App State both on late game heroics by the foes.
Once conference came along it seemed HPU was set to make a massive run tearing through the conference, but HPU showed they can be stopped. Winthrop gave them their lone loss and only lost by 2 on the road, Charleston Southern took them to Overtime, Presbyterian only fell by 3 points. In the end for the THIRD season in a row, High Point has won the regular season title, this time with Flynn Clayman at the helm which included so far tying the record for most wins by a first year coach going 27-4.
Tournament Prediction:
Now this is the part I love, trying to predict the future and predict what will happen in Johnson City (something I somehow did perfectly last season).
Wednesday:
USC Upstate vs Gardner Webb:
The season series for this one was split evenly with both teams taking their home game but falling on the road, but that’s about where the comparison ends between the two. USC Upstate has the better team by a solid margin, the resume just has so much more to point towards as reasons to win this one. Marty Richter gets the Rubber Game and gets his first Big South tournament win.
Friday:
USC Upstate (8-9 Winner) vs High Point:
No matter who wins the 8v9 game, they get the pleasure of facing a runaway train in High Point that just seems to be walking down their opponents at will. In the two games Upstate had with High Point, they won those games by 20 and 25 points. I think High Point blows past that margin but takes their foot off the pedal with 3 games in 3 days but still win pretty comfortably.
Charleston Southern vs Winthrop
The rematch of a game that changed this tournament’s trajectory massively. With Winthrop’s loss two things changed, it officially eliminated Winthrop from contention for the #1 seed but also resulted in the injury of Logan Duncomb and his status very much up in the air. If Duncomb is Out, I think Charleston Southern wins this game and actually makes it to the finals. I will air on the side of caution picking Winthrop as I think Duncomb will do everything possible to play.
Longwood vs UNC Asheville
The 4v5 game is really interesting to look at, it’s a true massive contrast. UNC Asheville is truly carried 3/4 superstars while Longwood doesn’t have that “superstar” talent but has a very solid 6-7 players who can get 8-12 points easily night in and night out. If this game was deeper in the tournament I would favor Longwood as only having stars can only get you for Asheville. With this game being the 1st game, I think depth won’t play as much of a role and Asheville does a 3-0 sweep over Longwood.
Presbyterian vs Radford
The rematch of the most exciting game in the Big South according to KenPom. It’s actually been a while since these teams played, last coming on Jan 31st. That game went to triple overtime coming out in front after going on a 12-1 run to start the half. Presbyterian enters this game on what looks like a skid to most people but I think it’s a bit of momentum with close losses to the top 2 teams. I think PC finally breaks through getting their first Big South semifinal berth after beating Radford.
Saturday:
High Point vs UNC Asheville
The final that many people expected last year comes true, but this time it’s really not as exciting. Last time these two teams played High Point held UNC Asheville to under 50 points, the first time Asheville had been held under 50 in conference play since 2022. High Point just seems to be a level above UNC Asheville with both depth and starting 5, the level up should propel them to the finals.
Winthrop vs Presbyterian
A rematch of the regular season finale this time on a neutral court. The most recent game ended with PC only losing by 4 to Winthrop with PC looking like the better team at times in that game. I do think Winthrop wins this one just simply because they won both of the other games and it just seems that High Point and Winthrop are on a collision course.
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY:
High Point vs Winthrop
This game has just seemed destined to happen since last season, last season ended in heartbreaking fashion blowing a 15 point lead in the 2nd half to fall to High Point. Winthrop shocking many they beat Winthrop earlier in the season and now most recently with High Point edging out Winthrop in the Qubein Center. For Winthrop it’s simple, this is the best chance Mark Prosser has had since his first season in Rock Hill to make the tournament. For High Point, the goal is to build on last year’s success and capture back to back Big South titles.
This game is truly a 50/50 in my eyes when both teams are fully healthy and we saw that when they faced off in the Qubein Center this season. I look back at both of the BIG MOMENT games of the past 3 games and both of those went the way of High Point, but I also have to admit. It seems like Winthrop has an almost destiny like entity on their side but ultimately, I will go with the boring pick of High Point.
And a little aside, I think either that represents this league will take home a game in the NCAA tournament.